Back from BOLIVIAN!

"Alex is great and a king", these immortal words are chiseled into the daiichi torii of the infamous Yasukuni shrine in Chiyoda, Tokyo, Japan commemorating Japanese war dead in WWII. Actually, that is false and makes no sense at all.

And now, I will update, after months of silence, only an epic bout of 9/11 proportions could rouse me from my crypt-world, pry me from my duck flocks and holy relics. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua vs. Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida are due to do ("Do dah do do!") genocide upon this earth, TONITE. Karate vs. Muay Thai. Shotokan's standard-bearer vs. The Prince of Pride. Ryu vs. Sagat. I'm just shivering with excitement and dragon-AIDS.

I'm in the minority when I say Machida won the first fight, I scored the first 3 rounds in his favor and Shogun the final two, maybe under Pride rules Shogun would have won, but in a 10-point must system I weighed Machida's right straights to the head more than Shogun's body and leg kicks. Bodywork is a very risky strategy, it only works if it ends in a late KO or knockdown which in this instance it didn't, seldom do you see fighters winning decisions if they are exchanging leg kicks for strikes to the head. I often feel very lonely among the expert community in this opinion and I really think the commentary shaped people's opinions on this, Rogan has a huge hard-on for leg kicks and bodywork. There are reams of papyrus scrutinizing the first fight so let me just shut the fuck up about it and talk about tonite.

Rematches are all about adjustments and I think the big question is whether or not Machida can make any, he's basically perfected his style, he hasn't really added anything to it in 3 or 4 years, and noone has been able to make sense of the the novelty of his signature Karate stance, a modified Zenkutsu dachi (front stance) and his mystifying tai sabaki (body management) until he ran into Shogun who he still edged by. Shogun cleared some of the fog by cutting off the cage (which it seems very few fighters do), forcing Machida into a direction by occupying space between the cage and the center of the octagon and landing leg or body kicks in that direction. The strategy was to destroy Machida's lateral movement and neutralize his tai sabaki then go to the head in the later rounds, a winning strategy if he could've completed the final phase.

This is a great strategic start for Shogun but look for him to go to the head earlier and attempt to KO or knockdown Machida with his war-winning Thai clinch. Machida is notoriously difficult to handle and has an arsenal of esoteric foot sweeps to counter obvious clinch attempts (ask Thiago Silva) so this path may prove difficult. Still more daunting is trying to stop Machida in the free-movement range, so who the hell knows? I think Shogun's best chance at winning is taking the fight to the ground, where Karatekas defer to other styles for help, Machida has a black belt under Nogeuira, I guess, so this isn't exactly a weakness either. Shogun is gonna go out on his shield though, he's afraid of the scorecards more than Machida's reverse punch so look for him to have a few all-out attacks that may end in his destruction.

Machida, I think, is a little less scared of the scorecards and will look to be a smidge more aggressive, I think he'll break his conservative mold a few times and try to score a sweep or knockdown, something dramatic looking to duplicate his success but in a more decisive manner. I don't think his strategy will change at all, he's a cerebral fighter and all that but his fights play out in a similar way. He'll take more risks but not many more, Shogun has a very tough jaw and has never been stopped by strikes and is seldom stunned.

My prediction: Machida by decision, he should replicate his offensive production and look to take less damage, he may add in a few strategic flurries and look to foot sweep Shogun to seal rounds. Shogun is too macho to take this to the ground and will look to stop Machida the Chute Boxe way: with leg kicks in the free-movement stage and knees from the Thai plum and stomps and soccer kicks to the face (whoops, KNEE NO FOUL!). Good luck with that.

So there you have it, as a pajama-jam wearing karateka myself, I'm rooting for Machida, but I love Shogun too and I wouldn't feel bad if the Prince of Pride got his crown.